Should you buy sneakers on Black Friday or wait?
Last year it made no difference. The typical shoe sold for the same price on Black Friday weekend as two weeks before, and about 2% more two weeks later. The one dip was Cyber Monday on StockX.
$125, then $132On Black Friday weekend 2025, the older shoe with the most sales cost $7 more than two weeks before.Photo: GOAT
$122 both timesThe 'Rain Cloud' sold for the same price before Black Friday and during it.Photo: GOAT
$147.50, then $142The wheat Timberland boot was one that dipped, by $5.50.Photo: StockXStores cut prices on Black Friday. On GOAT and StockX, the price is whatever a buyer and a seller agree on. So does the same shoe get cheaper that weekend?
Last year it did not. On Black Friday weekend 2025, the typical shoe sold for the same price as in the two weeks before. Two weeks later, shoes sold for about 2% more than on the weekend. That is one year, not a rule.
Each shoe compared with itself, GOAT and StockX. What happened in 2025, not a forecast for 2026.
Eight shoes, before, during and after
The eight older shoes (out before October 2025) with the most sales that weekend. Prices are the middle sale.
How we counted: all 8 rows in a table
| Shoe | Two weeks before | Black Friday weekend | Two weeks after |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASICS Gel-1130 'Black Pure Silver' | $125 | $132 | $132 |
| Jordan 4 'Cave Stone' | $181 | $188 | $189 |
| New Balance 2002R 'Rain Cloud' | $122 | $122 | $128 |
| Jordan 4 'White Cement' (2025) | $234 | $239 | $246 |
| Timberland 6" boot, wheat | $147.50 | $142 | $145 |
| ASICS Gel-1130 'White Pure Silver' | $125 | $130 | $143 |
| New Balance 9060 'Triple Black' | $120 | $122 | $125 |
| New Balance 2002R 'Phantom' | $120 | $127 | $130 |
0%: the typical price change on Black Friday weekend, across 7,330 shoes.
Six of these eight cost a little more on the weekend. Across all 7,330 shoes it evens out: 1,972 sold at least 5% cheaper, 2,040 at least 5% higher, and 3,318 stayed within 5%.
The one dip: Cyber Monday on StockX
On Cyber Monday 2025, a fee-free day on StockX, the same shoes sold for about 2% less there than in the two weeks before (2,762 shoes; that post measures the promo hours and gets -3.7%). On the other four days, and on GOAT, prices did not fall.
What did change: how many pairs sold
GOAT and StockX recorded 101,283 sneaker sales on Black Friday 2025. That is 1.6 to 3.2 times the Fridays around it:
How we counted: all 5 rows in a table
| Friday | Sales recorded | Black Friday was |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 14 | 31,732 | 3.2x |
| Nov 21 | 35,560 | 2.8x |
| Nov 28, Black Friday | 101,283 | |
| Dec 5 | 55,736 | 1.8x |
| Dec 12 | 65,140 | 1.6x |
Part of that was one new shoe: the Jordan 4 'Black Cat' came out that day. Without the shoes released that week, Black Friday had 80,458 sales, 1.3 to 2.6 times the same four Fridays.
Many shoes are already under retail
Plenty of shoes sell under retail with no sale at all. In October 2026, 286 of the 500 best-selling adult sneakers sold for less than retail, 236 of them at least 10% under.
Last year the shoe mattered more than the date. Look up your pair in the price checker and read how to tell if a price is a good deal. For the hours, the map and what sold, see the Black Friday story.
Past sales, not a forecast for 2026.
Go deeper
The numbers behind the chart. Weekend vs the two weeks before: 3,454 shoes up, 3,439 down (sign test p = 0.87), typical change 0.0% (95% range 0.0% to 0.0%). Two weeks after vs the weekend: 4,853 up, 2,774 down (p < 0.001), +2.4% (2.2% to 2.6%). Around Christmas: 4,433 up, 2,790 down (p < 0.001), +3.0% (2.6% to 3.4%). After New Year's: 3,512 up, 2,641 down (p < 0.001), +1.9% (1.4% to 2.2%). The three later results stay clear after correcting for four tests. Cyber Monday on StockX: 1,110 up, 1,574 down (p < 0.001), -2.0% (-2.5% to -1.5%), from the Black Friday story's data.
Exploratory: we looked first. Re-run afterwards on shoes released before October 2025 only: 0.0% on the weekend (6,657 shoes; 3,198 up, 3,086 down, p = 0.16) and about +2.5% two weeks after (7,336 shoes; 4,473 up, 2,504 down, p < 0.001).
How we counted
GOAT and StockX sales, Nov 13, 2025 to Jan 12, 2026, US Eastern days; sneakers and boots, no cleats. In the price counts a "shoe" is one listing on one site with 3+ sales in October 2025, 5+ sales in both periods, and no release between Nov 20 and Dec 1; we compare its median in the two periods. The four comparisons and their tests were written down before the query ran. The table pools both sites by style code (Timberland: StockX only) and leaves out three Jordans released in November or December 2025 (all three were lower on the weekend). Friday counts are sales we recorded, not the whole market. Below retail: October 2026 sales (complete on both sites; the newest days can still gain a few %) against StockX's listed retail price, adult pairs only; the story's 278 of 500 includes kids' sizes. US prices.
The tests behind these numbers
The paragraphs and tables above, in full, with their intervals and tests.
GOAT and StockX sales, Nov 13, 2025 to Jan 12, 2026, US Eastern days; sneakers and boots, no cleats. In the price counts a "shoe" is one listing on one site with 3+ sales in October 2025, 5+ sales in both periods, and no release between Nov 20 and Dec 1; we compare its median in the two periods. The four comparisons and their tests (exact sign test, bootstrap range, corrected together) were written down before the query ran. The table pools both sites by style code (Timberland: StockX only) and leaves out three Jordans released in November or December 2025 (all three were lower on the weekend). Friday counts are sales we recorded, not the whole market. Below retail: October 2026 sales (complete on both sites; the newest days can still gain a few %) against StockX's listed retail price, adult pairs only; the story's 278 of 500 includes kids' sizes. US prices.
The shoes in this post
The 8 shoes named above, each with its own page: recorded sales by size and marketplace, updated daily. Photos GOAT and StockX.
Asics Gel 1130 'Black Pure Silver'Price by colorway →
Air Jordan 4 Retro 'Cave Stone'Price by colorway →
New Balance 2002R 'Protection Pack - Rain Cloud'Price by colorway →
Air Jordan 4 Retro OG 'White Cement' 2025Price by colorway →
Timberland 6" Premium Waterproof Boot WheatPrice by colorway →
Asics Gel 1130 'White Pure Silver Black'Price by colorway →
New Balance 9060 'Triple Black Suede'Price by colorway →
New Balance 2002R 'Protection Pack - Phantom'Price by colorway →